Burnham on Course to Become PM: Shaping His Leadership Team

Burnham on course to be PM but – Westminster is currently preoccupied with a different question than the one it usually focuses on. While the identity of the next prime minister is all but settled, the focus has shifted to the composition of Andy Burnham’s government and the strategic direction he might take. Labour MPs have largely accepted Burnham’s potential rise to power as inevitable, especially after Sir Keir Starmer’s exit from the leadership. The next leader’s ascension seems almost certain, with the remaining hurdles crumbling rapidly in recent days. A pivotal moment came on Wednesday when Darren Jones, a senior minister, confirmed he would not contest Burnham’s candidacy, eliminating one of the last obstacles. Though Al Carns, the former Armed Forces Minister, has not ruled out a challenge, the likelihood of securing 81 votes from Labour MPs to trigger a formal contest appears slim.

Choosing the Next Chancellor: A Key Decision

The selection of Burnham’s chancellor has sparked significant debate within the party. Rachel Reeves, the current chancellor, is expected to step down, a move that, while unsurprising for a leader seeking change, carries weight. Reeves has not only held the role for two years but has also shaped Labour’s economic policies during years in opposition. Her departure could signal a shift in priorities, though her experience in the Treasury remains a notable asset. Many anticipate her being offered a more junior cabinet position, a rarity in Labour’s history. Since Nadhim Zahawi’s brief tenure as chancellor under Boris Johnson, only one other instance comes to mind: the 1983 appointment of John Major as chancellor, a position he had previously held in the opposition.

Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, is now the frontrunner for the chancellor role. His supporters argue he is the ideal candidate to help Burnham realize his economic ambitions, particularly in transforming the British economy. Miliband’s track record as a former leader of the Labour Party and his recent tenure as a minister under Starmer have reinforced his credentials. However, Miliband’s left-leaning policies, especially his advocacy for a green transition, have drawn criticism from right-wing MPs who fear a shift in the party’s direction. One Labour MP warned,

“I think the chancellor thing is a huge risk for Andy. If Andy goes through with Ed, it will divide the party from the start.”

Another added,

“If Andy chooses Ed, it might create tension among MPs who are wary of his radical ideas.”

Alternatives to Miliband include Wes Streeting, the health secretary, who has been promoting a vision of “progressive capitalism” in recent weeks. His allies argue that Streeting’s ability to communicate complex economic concepts in an accessible way could help bridge the gap between Labour and financial markets. Yet, his potential elevation to chancellor raises questions about his loyalty to Burnham, especially since he has long expressed ambitions of his own. A senior minister noted,

“Wes wants to be prime minister one day. Would Andy ever be able to trust that Wes would have his back when things are tough?”

Similarly, Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, and John Healey, the former defence secretary, are also under consideration. Healey’s appointment, however, would require a substantial increase in defence spending, a decision that could test Burnham’s ability to balance fiscal responsibility with strategic priorities.

Downing Street’s Architect: James Purnell

One area where Burnham’s leadership team is already defined is the role of his chief of staff. James Purnell, a veteran Labour figure, is set to take on this critical position. Purnell’s appointment is notable for its ideological alignment: during his time in elected politics, he was regarded as a staunch Blairite, often advocating for centrist policies within the Labour Party. His history with Burnham dates back to their days in Tony Blair’s first government, where they both served as special advisers before being elected to represent Greater Manchester constituencies in 2001. Their shared experience in the Treasury and their close personal ties suggest a strategic partnership rather than a mere coincidence.

However, Purnell’s role as chief of staff might not solely be about ideology. His past actions, including resigning from Gordon Brown’s government to help bring him down and install David Miliband, indicate a willingness to support leaders with strong personal connections. This could mean that Burnham’s team is not just a reflection of policy goals but also of loyalty and personal chemistry. Purnell’s ability to navigate political complexities and his deep understanding of Labour’s internal dynamics make him a natural choice for overseeing the day-to-day operations of No 10. Yet, his association with Blairites might also signal a more moderate approach to governance, potentially tempering Burnham’s more progressive agenda.

Implications for Labour’s Future

Burnham’s potential government will be a test of Labour’s ability to reconcile differing factions. The decision to appoint Miliband as chancellor, if made, would mark a significant shift, as it would place a former leader in a role that could influence the party’s economic strategy. Conversely, choosing Streeting or another moderate candidate might help maintain unity within the party, especially among MPs who are hesitant to embrace radical change. The challenge lies in balancing Burnham’s vision with the diverse preferences of Labour’s parliamentary base.

While the chancellor’s role is the most contentious, other key positions are also in flux. The foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, and the defence secretary, John Healey, could be reshuffled to align with Burnham’s priorities. Cooper’s experience in the Treasury and her connection to Burnham’s political journey make her a strong contender for leadership roles, while Healey’s expertise in military affairs might be leveraged to justify increased spending on national security. These appointments will not only shape the government’s policy direction but also test Burnham’s ability to manage internal dissent and build a cohesive team.

Burnham’s leadership team, including Purnell, will play a crucial role in determining the success of his administration. The question remains: will this group reflect a blend of experienced policymakers and fresh faces, or will it be dominated by familiar allies with a shared history? As Labour prepares to enter a new phase of governance, the answers to these questions will define the party’s future trajectory and its ability to navigate the challenges of the upcoming political landscape.