How to Win a World Cup Penalty Shootout

How to win a World Cup penalty – As the World Cup advances into its knockout rounds, the stage is set for high-stakes encounters that often hinge on penalty shootouts. The 2022 tournament saw an unprecedented number of these decisive moments, with a record five shootouts. With the 2026 edition introducing an additional round in the last 32, the potential for even more dramatic outcomes is growing. BBC Sport and Opta have analyzed 320 penalties across 35 shootouts since 1982 to uncover patterns that could shape this summer’s competition.

Country Performance in Penalty Shootouts

Historically, some nations have struggled more than others in the penalty shootout arena. Until 2022, England had the dubious honor of missing the most penalties in World Cup shootouts—eight in total. That title was then claimed by Spain, who added three missed kicks in the last 16 against Morocco, bringing their tally to nine. This places Spain ahead of several other countries, including England, in the race for the worst performance. Meanwhile, Argentina has consistently dominated, winning six of their seven shootouts, including the 2022 final against France. Their record highlights a blend of technical skill and psychological resilience.

Germany and Croatia have also showcased remarkable consistency, each securing four consecutive shootout victories. In contrast, Japan, Mexico, and Romania have suffered two losses each, underscoring the challenge of maintaining composure under pressure. On the flip side, Belgium, South Korea, and Paraguay have each scored all their penalties, achieving a perfect 100% success rate. Only Switzerland has failed to convert every kick, with zero successful saves out of three attempts. This stark contrast in performance raises questions about the factors that separate the top teams from those who falter.

Player Success and Tactical Choices

Among the standout performers are Lionel Messi and Luka Modric, who have each scored penalties in three different World Cup shootouts. Their 100% success rate sets them apart in a field where most players struggle to maintain perfection. Messi’s two shootout kicks in the 2022 final against France were pivotal, while Modric’s exploits are tied to his hometown of Zadar, Croatia’s fifth-largest city. This geographical link adds an interesting layer to the narrative, as Modric and two other goalkeepers—Danijel Subasic and Dominik Livakovic—are among the most successful in saving penalties.

Subasic and Livakovic, in particular, have made a name for themselves in the shootout format. Subasic saved four penalties in the 2018 tournament, while Livakovic replicated that feat in 2022. Both are joined by Portugal’s Ricardo, who achieved a three-save record in a single shootout. Ricardo’s 75% save rate, despite facing only four penalties, underscores his reliability. However, not all goalkeepers have been as fortunate—Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez, for instance, saved just one penalty in the 2022 final, though his psychological tactics may have unsettled the French players.

For the players taking the kicks, the direction of their shots has played a critical role. Those opting to aim left or right have a higher chance of success, with 72.4% and 71.1% conversion rates respectively. In contrast, central kicks yield a lower success rate of 61.6%. This trend is even more pronounced when considering the outcome of penalties: 19.2% of central kicks miss the target, including hits on the woodwork, compared to just 5.7% for shots to either side. The data suggests that lateral placement is a strategic advantage, though defenders and midfielders have also contributed significantly to the success of their teams.

Positions and Pressure Points

The success rates of players based on their positions are telling. Forwards have the highest conversion rate at 75%, followed by midfielders at 67.9% and defenders at 65%. This hierarchy reflects the natural inclination of forwards to take more decisive shots, while defenders often face pressure to remain calm. However, the critical factor for many teams is the order in which players take their penalties. The first takers for each team have the best chance of success, with a 72.9% scoring rate, while the second and third rounds see a slight drop to 71.5% each. By the fourth round, the success rate declines to 64.2%, and it further drops to 66.7% in the fifth.

This pattern is not without explanation. The eighth taker in the fourth round, who faces the final pressure of keeping their team in the competition, scores only 59.4% of the time. This decline may be attributed to the mounting tension as the shootout approaches its climax. Interestingly, the European Championship has shown similar trends, reinforcing the idea that psychological factors heavily influence outcomes. Forwards, however, often carry the burden of expectation, making their performance a focal point for the entire team.

Goalkeeper Involvement and Unusual Trends

Goalkeepers, while crucial in saving penalties, rarely take them themselves. To date, no goalkeeper has attempted a penalty in a World Cup shootout, a fact attributed to the mavericks like Jose Luis Chilavert, Rogerio Ceni, and Hans-Jorg Butt who have never been in a shootout. This trend highlights the traditional role of goalkeepers as defenders rather than scorers. However, the data reveals that when goalkeepers do take a penalty, their success rate is lower than that of outfield players. This disparity may explain why teams often prefer to let goalkeepers save rather than take a shot themselves.

Despite their lack of shootout participation, goalkeepers have still played a vital role in shaping the outcomes. The ability to save penalties, particularly in high-pressure moments, can be the difference between victory and defeat. For example, in the 2022 final, France’s goalkeeper Hugo Lloris saved two of the first three penalties, which added to the tension. Yet, the sixth penalty takers in two shootouts went to sudden death, with a 50% success rate among the four players involved. This suggests that the pressure intensifies as the shootout progresses, and the final decisions are often as critical as the first.

Strategies for Success

Understanding the psychology of penalty shootouts is as important as mastering the technical aspects. The article points out that players who employ a side strategy—whether a Panenka, a rolling kick, or a powerful shot—tend to perform better. This approach allows for unpredictability, making it harder for goalkeepers to anticipate. However, the data also shows that even with these tactics, the success rate is not guaranteed. The right and left sides are statistically more effective, but the central position remains a gamble.

Moreover, the sequence of penalties has a clear impact on the takers’ confidence. The first round’s high success rate (72.9%) is expected, but the drop-off in later rounds indicates the importance of mental preparation. Teams that have faced the pressure of sudden death in the past may have an edge, as the added urgency can either bolster or destabilize a player’s focus. The 2022 tournament