ONS Forecasts Mortality to Outpace Birth Rates in UK from 2026

Population Growth Slows Amid Fertility and Migration Trends

More UK deaths than births expected – The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised its long-term population projections, indicating that deaths will surpass births annually in the UK beginning in 2026. This shift marks a significant change from earlier forecasts that anticipated continued population growth until 2096. The new estimates predict the UK’s population will reach 71 million by 2034, growing at a markedly slower pace than previously expected. The primary drivers of this slowdown are a sharp decline in migration and persistently low fertility rates.

According to the ONS, the current trajectory of population growth is influenced by two key factors: reduced birth numbers and delayed childbearing. The number of children in the UK is projected to decrease by 1.6 million over the next decade, while the proportion of pensioners is set to rise sharply. By 2034, individuals aged 65 and above are expected to constitute a fifth of the population, despite the gradual increase in the state pension age. This demographic shift will place growing pressure on healthcare systems, pension funds, and public finances, as highlighted by experts.

Net Migration Adjusted in Light of Brexit Trends

Dr. Madeleine Sumption, a researcher at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, noted that the ONS now treats the post-Brexit immigration peak as a temporary fluctuation rather than a sustained trend. This adjustment has led to a revised estimate of net migration contributing 2.2 million individuals to the UK population between 2024 and 2034. Previously, the ONS had anticipated higher immigration levels, but the latest data suggests a more moderate increase. The chart below illustrates that net migration peaked near a million in 2023 and has since dropped to just over 200,000.

The Home Office has acknowledged the revised projections, emphasizing its efforts to reduce migration levels. A spokesperson stated: “While these projections do not directly take into account recent policy changes, we must go further to reduce the levels of migration. That’s why we are introducing sweeping reforms to our immigration system, ending over-reliance on cheap labour whilst attracting the brightest and the best to the UK.” The reforms aim to balance workforce needs with long-term demographic stability.

Ageing Population Challenges Healthcare and Pensions

Stuart McDonald, head of longevity and demographic insights at pension consultants LCP, warned that the ageing population will intensify debates over retirement age and work-life balance. “For pensions, the projections will intensify an already difficult debate about whether people can realistically and fairly be expected to work longer,” he said. The NHS faces unique challenges, as the growing number of elderly individuals increases demand for healthcare services. “The challenge is not simply a larger population, but a larger population at ages associated with greater healthcare need,” McDonald added.

Dr. Sumption also highlighted the implications of slower population growth. “In the short term, the projections suggest net migration will fall temporarily before bouncing back up again,” she explained. This means the UK’s population may experience a dip in the short run but remain stable over the longer term. The ONS stressed that its projections, which span the next 100 years, are not definitive forecasts but rather educated estimates based on current data. Real-world outcomes could vary depending on future changes in birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns.

Long-Term Projections and Sectoral Impacts

James Robards, head of household and population projections at the ONS, stated that the population is expected to peak in the 2050s before beginning to decline. This contradicts earlier forecasts that projected growth through 2096. The revised timeline reflects a more realistic assessment of demographic trends, incorporating factors like declining fertility and shifting migration patterns. The ONS also noted that the population will grow by 1.7 million in the 10 years following 2024, as shown by the dotted red line in the accompanying graph.

Despite the slower growth rate, the working-age population is anticipated to increase by 1.5 million between 2024 and 2034. However, this growth will not match the pace of the pensioner population, which is projected to expand by 1.8 million. This imbalance raises concerns about the sustainability of public services and the economic burden on younger generations. Sarah Scobie, Deputy Director of Research at the Nuffield Trust, cautioned that end-of-life care services are “ill-prepared for an increase in deaths as the population ages overall.”

Scobie pointed out that hospital care accounts for over 80% of public expenditure on healthcare for people in their final year of life. Most of this spending is directed toward emergency care, which could strain resources as the number of elderly individuals requiring treatment rises. The ONS’ projections underscore the urgency of adapting healthcare infrastructure to accommodate these changes, while also rethinking pension policies to ensure long-term viability.

Policy Reforms and Future Outlook

Experts have called for a comprehensive approach to address the challenges posed by an ageing population. A House of Lords report from December found that young people would bear the brunt of failing to adapt to demographic changes. The report criticized policies such as raising the state pension age and increasing immigration as insufficient on their own to mitigate the effects of declining fertility and rising life expectancy.

“Policies governments have used to address the impact of declining fertility and rising life expectancy in the UK—raising the state pension age or increasing immigration, for example—were not adequate solutions on their own,” the report stated. The ONS’ latest projections highlight the need for more nuanced strategies to balance population trends with economic and social demands. As the UK’s population evolves, policymakers must consider how to support both an ageing workforce and a shrinking youth demographic.

These projections also emphasize the importance of international migration in maintaining population stability. While net migration has declined, it will still play a critical role in offsetting the natural decline in birth rates. The ONS’ revised outlook serves as a reminder that demographic shifts are complex and influenced by multiple factors, including global economic conditions, immigration policies, and societal changes in family planning.

Overall, the UK’s demographic landscape is set to transform significantly in the coming decades. The population’s growth rate will slow, with a greater emphasis on sustaining the working-age population and managing the rising costs associated with an ageing society. The ONS’ updated forecasts provide a crucial framework for understanding these changes, but they also underscore the need for adaptive policies to address the challenges ahead.