Sir John Curtice: Election results show politics in the UK has fragmented

Sir John Curtice – Thursday’s local election outcomes have underscored a growing sense of disarray within the UK’s political scene. With results revealing a stark shift in voter allegiance, the traditional dominance of major parties is increasingly challenged by emerging forces. The data highlights how the electoral map has become more complex, with smaller parties carving out significant influence in regions where they previously struggled to gain traction.

Reform UK’s Electoral Surge

Reform UK has emerged as the dominant force in this year’s English local elections, securing the largest number of seats and votes. The party’s performance suggests a surge in support for its pro-Brexit platform, with projections indicating more than 1,000 net gains across the country. This success is particularly notable in areas where the Brexit vote had a strong impact, such as constituencies where over 60% of voters backed leaving the EU in 2016. In these wards, Reform’s vote share averaged 40%, outpacing its competitors by a significant margin.

Conversely, in regions with weaker support for Brexit, the party’s gains were less pronounced. For example, in wards where less than 40% of voters had endorsed leaving the EU, Reform UK’s vote share dropped to just 10%. This disparity illustrates how the party’s appeal is closely tied to the ideological divide that fueled the Brexit referendum. Despite its modest average of 25% across more than 500 council wards, Reform UK’s campaign has managed to translate this into a commanding position in key areas.

Labour’s Staggering Decline

Labour has faced a dramatic erosion of support, marking one of the most significant declines in its history. The party’s vote share has fallen by 18 points since 2022 and an additional 10 points since the 2024 general election, which had already seen a sharp drop in its fortunes. This trend has been most severe in areas where Labour traditionally held sway, such as constituencies with large Muslim populations. In these regions, the party’s losses have been exacerbated, resulting in the surrender of more than half of the seats it defended in the previous election.

The consequences of this decline are far-reaching. Labour has lost control of 23 councils and suffered a devastating setback in Wales, where it had remained the leading party for over a century. In the latest elections, Labour’s support plummeted to 11%, a 25-point drop from its 2021 performance. This has allowed Plaid Cymru to take the lead, now holding 43 of the 96 seats in Wales. As a result, all three devolved governments are likely to be headed by nationalist leaders, further destabilizing Labour’s traditional stronghold in the region.

Conservatives’ Shrinking Influence

The Conservative Party has also seen a marked decline in its electoral strength, with support falling by 11 points since 2022 and an additional 10 points since the 2024 general election. This has led to the party losing more than half of the seats it contested, a sign of its waning appeal. The reduction in support has been particularly acute in areas where Reform UK’s influence is strongest, reinforcing the threat posed by the smaller party to the Conservatives’ dominance.

Despite these losses, the party has managed to reclaim Westminster, a symbolic victory that highlights its ability to retain core constituencies. However, this success is largely a result of Labour’s decline rather than a true rebound for the Conservatives. In fact, the party’s own vote share has decreased by five points, indicating that its resurgence is limited to a few key battlegrounds. The competition between Labour and the Conservatives has now become more balanced, with neither party holding a clear advantage in many regions.

Liberal Democrats’ Mixed Results

The Liberal Democrats have also played a role in the reshaping of the UK’s political landscape, though their gains have been more modest compared to Reform UK’s dominance. The party has taken control of several councils, including Portsmouth, Stockport, and parts of Surrey and Sussex. However, this progress has been offset by losses in areas like Hull, where the party’s influence has weakened. The Liberal Democrats’ strategy has focused on capitalizing on the decline of both Conservative and Labour support, allowing them to secure a few key victories in constituencies where they were once second or third.

While the party has managed to gain some ground in Scotland, its presence remains limited in Wales, where it holds just a single seat. This reflects the challenges the Lib Dems face in regions dominated by nationalist movements or strong party loyalists. The party’s performance underscores the broader fragmentation of the UK’s electoral system, as its ability to make substantial gains is hindered by the shifting allegiances of voters across different regions.

A Shifting Political Landscape

The election results mark a pivotal moment in the UK’s political evolution. The rise of Reform UK, coupled with Labour’s and the Conservatives’ struggles, signals a departure from the two-party dominance that has defined British politics for decades. The Greens, though not as prominent as Reform, have also recorded their best-ever local election performance, averaging 17% of the vote—a seven-point increase from their previous best in 2022. This growth, while not transformative, demonstrates the potential for green politics to gain a foothold in more traditional Labour strongholds.

The data from these elections reveals a pattern of voter realignment, with many individuals shifting their support away from the major parties. This trend is evident in the way Reform UK has captured significant ground in areas where Brexit sentiment was strongest. The Greens, too, have benefited from this fragmentation, securing notable victories in local elections. However, their progress is still far from matching the rapid gains seen by Reform UK, highlighting the diverse dynamics at play in the current political climate.

Analysis by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, Lotte Hargrave, Jonathon Mellon and Stuart Perrett.