Should I book travel now? What the Iran war means for your plans

The recent Iran war has created ripple effects across global economies, influencing everything from gas prices to grocery store expenses. While these impacts may seem minor compared to the direct risks faced by those in conflict zones, they are increasingly affecting everyday consumers. Travelers, too, are feeling the strain as the Middle East’s turmoil disrupts international aviation networks and raises concerns about upcoming trips.

Global travel routes in crisis

Conflict in the region has already thrown aviation schedules into chaos. Airlines operating in the Middle East have had to adjust flight paths, leading to added fuel costs and potential price hikes. For example, Emirates and Qatar Airways have rerouted some services, increasing the distance flown and fuel consumption. This has put pressure on direct Europe-Asia routes, which are now navigating alternative corridors through Georgia and Azerbaijan or longer southern paths.

“We’re recommending that people book whenever they can, for the rest of the year, now,” says Clint Henderson, principal spokesperson for The Points Guy.

With oil prices climbing past $100 per barrel, flight costs have surged. Airlines are scrambling to offset these increases, but the duration of the war remains uncertain. Henderson advises travelers not to wait for potential price drops, especially for summer or later departures. “Even if your travel date is months away, now is the time to act,” he explains.

Strategies for savvy travelers

For domestic flights, Henderson recommends using tools like Junova.AI and pAIback to track price fluctuations and secure refunds if fares drop. He also cautions against choosing basic economy tickets during this period, as they come with stricter refund and change policies. International travelers face similar restrictions, making flexibility in booking a key priority.

Some carriers are offering more leniency. Middle Eastern airlines, in particular, have shown willingness to adapt, which Henderson highlights as an opportunity for passengers with accumulated points or miles. “Flexibility in booking can make a big difference,” he notes.

Financial impact on tourism

The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates the Middle East tourism sector is losing at least $600 million daily due to the conflict. This follows projections that international visitors would spend $207 billion in the region by 2026. Rising fuel costs could further strain the industry, though the extent of price increases is still unclear.

According to Cirium Ascend Consultancy, the Middle East accounts for roughly 5% of global international arrivals. Additionally, about 10% of U.S. travelers heading to Asia pass through Middle Eastern hubs. Fuel expenses remain a critical factor, with U.S. carriers less prepared to absorb cost spikes than European and Asian airlines like Singapore Airlines and Qantas, which have hedged some fuel purchases.