The Struggle for Open Waters: A Delicate Balance at the Strait of Hormuz

Three reasons ships are not going – President Donald Trump’s declaration of the “opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, following the US-Iran deal announced on Sunday, sparked optimism that maritime traffic would resume without interruption. His social media post urged global vessels to “start your engines” and “let the oil flow.” However, data from MarineTraffic, analyzed by BBC Verify, tells a different story. Just seven ships have navigated the critical waterway since the agreement was revealed, while over 580 remain anchored in the Gulf, waiting for the right moment to proceed. This hesitancy reflects the lingering risks that have kept the strait effectively closed since late February.

Stagnation in the Gulf: A New Normal for Maritime Trade

MarineTraffic’s tracking reveals a bottleneck at the strait, with more than 250 oil tankers and 330 cargo ships reportedly trapped within the Gulf. The data suggests that about 75% of these vessels are stationary, clustering near major oil export hubs in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. The accumulation of ships in these areas underscores the cautious approach taken by operators, who fear the unpredictable dangers of transiting the strait. Analysts believe the actual number of vessels in the region could be even higher, as some ships avoid broadcasting their positions, making them invisible to tracking systems.

Security Concerns: A Persistent Deterrent

The strait’s closure stems from Iran’s strategic maneuvers, which began after US and Israeli strikes on 28 February. Since then, the country has maintained a de facto blockade, targeting ships that attempt to pass without its consent. This has led to instances of ships being fired upon mid-journey, with reports of several vessels reversing course or altering their routes to avoid conflict. Even as Trump promised to “immediately remove” the US naval blockade, the administration has kept it in place, awaiting the finalization of the deal. This dual blockade, combined with Iran’s threats, has created a climate of uncertainty for maritime operators.

The US Blockade: A Naval Standoff

On 13 April, the US imposed its own naval blockade of Iranian ports, marking a significant escalation in tensions. This measure has since led to the disablement of nine non-compliant vessels, with some ships suffering direct attacks via Hellfire missiles. The blockade’s presence, even after Trump’s announcement, continues to influence decision-making among ship owners and insurers. “It would take an extremely brave captain to transit through the strait, given the current state,” remarked Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group, highlighting the psychological and operational barriers that persist.

Waiting for the Green Light: A Risk-Averse Strategy

Despite the US’s claim of removing the blockade, the deal’s completion remains a prerequisite for full confidence. Captains and operators are still hesitant, opting to remain in the Gulf rather than take the plunge. “What we’ve been seeing is still very much a wait-and-see mentality,” said Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler. This cautious approach is evident in the slow movement of vessels, with some risk-tolerant entities, such as Greek shipping companies, potentially leading the way. “If certain companies successfully navigate the strait, it might build confidence for others,” Das added.

Historical Context: A Lesson from April

The current pause echoes earlier incidents, such as when Iran’s foreign minister declared the strait fully open in early April. Just one day later, authorities reversed this stance, closing the waterway and forcing over 33 vessels to turn back. “Captains will remember this event, which showed how quickly the situation can change,” noted Michelle Wiese Bockman, a senior analyst at Windward Maritime Intelligence. This history of reversals has reinforced the notion that crossing the strait is a gamble, with operators reluctant to be the first to bear the brunt of any new conflict.

Minelaying: A Hidden Threat to Navigation

Iran’s threats during the conflict extended beyond direct attacks. The country warned that it would deploy sea mines, including floating ones, if its coastline or islands were struck. These mines have since been confirmed as a major obstacle, with the International Maritime Organization’s secretary general, Arsenio Dominguez, stating that their removal is essential to restoring pre-war traffic levels. The Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman’s Maritime Security Centre have also issued alerts about suspected mine activity, raising concerns among global shipping networks.

Clearing the Path: A Slow and Steady Process

Experts estimate that clearing the strait of mines could take between 30 days and six months, depending on the complexity of the operation. “We simply do not know and this lack of clarity is very concerning,” said Phillip Belcher of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners. The process requires coordination between multiple stakeholders, including naval forces and mine-clearing teams, to ensure the safety of vessels. Without a clear timeline, operators continue to delay their movements, prioritizing caution over speed.

Political Dynamics: The Role of the Deal

The US-Iran deal, while a step toward resolving tensions, has not yet alleviated all concerns. Trump’s initial announcement of the “opening” of the strait was met with cautious optimism, but the continued presence of the US blockade and Iran’s own restrictions has kept traffic subdued. “Until the deal is signed, the situation remains fluid,” said Kelly. This political uncertainty, coupled with the physical challenges of mine-clearing, has created a perfect storm of hesitation among maritime actors. For many, the strait is not just a passage but a political statement, with each ship’s journey symbolizing the broader geopolitical stakes.

Looking Ahead: A Test of Resolve

As the deal moves forward, the question remains whether the strait will see a surge in traffic or continue to remain a barrier. The satellite imagery from 15 June, showing four US warships near the Gulf of Oman, suggests that the US is maintaining a visible presence to deter further Iranian aggression. Meanwhile, the accumulated vessels in the Gulf await a signal that the path is secure. “We need to wait a couple of days, maybe until Friday, to see what this looks like,” Kelly noted, emphasizing the need for patience in assessing the situation. For now, the strait remains a contested zone, where the flow of oil and gas depends as much on diplomacy as it does on daring.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supply, has become a focal point of geopolitical strategy. Its reopening hinges on the resolution of security threats, the removal of mines, and the easing of economic sanctions. While the initial optimism from Trump’s announcement has not yet translated into action, the data paints a picture of a cautious maritime world, where every movement is a calculated risk. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this waterway can return to its former role as a conduit for uninterrupted trade, or if it will remain a symbol of lingering tensions for months to come.