Lebanon Enters Talks with Israel but Lacks Leverage

Lebanon, once again caught in conflict, has initiated discussions with Israel. The process began after a recent meeting with President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace, a modernist structure atop a hill overlooking Beirut. This encounter took place last August, shortly after a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah ended in November 2024. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office amid the aftermath of the conflict, promising to disarm Hezbollah—a Shia Muslim militant group backed by Iran. His goal was to reduce the militia’s influence, which had been weakened yet remained a divisive force within the country.

Historical Tensions and Ceasefire Fragility

Hezbollah’s weapons have long been a flashpoint in Lebanese politics. Despite a fragile ceasefire, Israel continued to launch daily strikes targeting the group’s assets. In regions like Dahieh, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the eastern Bekaa Valley, the conflict lingered. Even from my residence in east Beirut, the hum of Israeli drones was a constant reminder of the ongoing tension. For Hezbollah’s supporters, the group serves as a shield against Israeli expansion, while critics argue it prioritizes Iranian interests, pulling Lebanon into wars it does not need.

“I was born an optimist,” Aoun stated during our conversation. His belief in resolving Hezbollah’s arms issue seemed unwavering, yet the reality proved more complex.

The 1989 Taif Agreement, which concluded Lebanon’s civil war, required all militias to surrender their weapons. However, Hezbollah positioned itself as a resistance movement, maintaining its arsenal despite the mandate. Israel’s 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon ended in 2000, but disputes over territory persisted. UN Resolution 1701, passed in 2006 to end the war and enforce disarmament, has never been fully executed. The group remains labeled a terrorist organization by nations such as the UK and the US.

Power and Politics in Lebanon

Hezbollah’s influence extends beyond the battlefield. It operates as a political party, holding seats in parliament and government, while also managing social services in areas where the state is absent. This dual role cements its status as Lebanon’s most dominant entity. President Aoun, however, has pushed for a “state monopoly on arms” policy, aiming to centralize control over weapons. Under a 2024 ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah agreed to relocate its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon, but the group has resisted full nationwide disarmament.

After Israel’s recent air strikes killed over 300 Lebanese in a single day, the US brokered a ceasefire with Iran. This prompted Israel to finally accept Aoun’s proposal for direct talks. A meeting between ambassadors, set for Washington later this week, is expected to focus on halting hostilities. Yet, with limited authority over Hezbollah, Aoun’s ability to enforce changes remains uncertain. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he warned during our August meeting. The path to lasting peace hinges on Hezbollah’s willingness to compromise, a challenge that looms large over Lebanon’s fragile stability.