How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, asserts that his nation possesses a ‘virtually limitless stockpile’ of critical weaponry. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry states its forces can endure prolonged resistance against adversaries. While stockpiles alone won’t determine the conflict’s outcome, they play a vital role in shaping its trajectory. Ukraine’s experience with Russia highlights that outnumbering and outarming an opponent doesn’t guarantee victory, yet the availability of arms remains a key element in military effectiveness.

The war has escalated quickly, with both sides exhausting resources at a faster rate than they can replenish. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) estimates that the U.S. and Israel have executed over 2,000 attacks, each involving multiple munitions. Iran, in turn, has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones since the conflict began. Many of these have been intercepted, but the scale of engagement underscores the strain on both sides’ arsenal.

“Iran’s ballistic missile launches have dropped by 86% compared to the first day of fighting,” said Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander. US Central Command (Centcom) reported a 23% reduction in missile activity within the past 24 hours.

Before the war, Iran was thought to have amassed more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. However, the ongoing conflict has already begun to deplete these reserves. The U.S. military, which relies heavily on precision-guided weapons, faces challenges in sustaining the pace of operations. These advanced systems are produced in limited quantities, and their use has increased the financial pressure on defense contractors.

Iran’s Shahed drones, mass-produced before the war, have been a critical asset. The technology was shared with Russia, which has deployed its version to devastating effect in Ukraine. Yet, the number of drone attacks has plummeted by 73% since the conflict started. This decline may signal a strategic shift to conserve supplies, though maintaining production will grow increasingly difficult.

US and Israeli jets now dominate the skies over Iran, with most air defenses destroyed. The country’s air force is no longer a formidable threat. Centcom has outlined the next phase as targeting Iran’s missile and drone launchers, along with its remaining stockpiles and production facilities. This approach could weaken Iran’s capacity to retaliate, but eliminating all weapons caches remains a complex task.

Iran’s vast territory, three times the size of France, allows for hidden stockpiles that are difficult to locate from the air. Historical examples, such as Israel’s struggle to dismantle Hamas in Gaza or the survival of Houthi rebels under a year-long U.S. bombing campaign, show the limits of aerial warfare. Despite its global dominance, the U.S. must balance the use of costly precision weapons with more economical alternatives.

Trump recently called a meeting with defense contractors to accelerate production, indicating potential strain on American resources. Caine noted the shift from expensive ‘stand-off’ weapons like Tomahawk missiles to cheaper ‘stand-in’ options such as JDAM bombs. This transition enables closer-range strikes without requiring long-range systems. Mark Cancian of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) claims the U.S. can maintain this intensity ‘almost indefinitely’ due to its large inventory of JDAM bombs. However, as the war continues, the list of viable targets will shrink, leading to a gradual slowdown in operations.