Henry Zeffman: What does Keir Starmer do next after Andy Burnham’s Makerfield win?

Henry Zeffman – After Andy Burnham secured victory in the Makerfield by-election, the Labour Party’s internal landscape has shifted dramatically. The win has sparked a wave of reactions from MPs, many of whom have expressed their views with strong language. Words like “delusional,” “a bit deluded,” and “utterly deluded” have circulated among party members, but these critiques are not directed at Burnham. Instead, they are aimed at Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader whose tenure has been both a triumph and a source of contention. Two years ago, Starmer played a pivotal role in returning Labour to government after a 14-year absence, and this came just five years after the party’s most devastating general election loss. Despite his achievements, the unity of Labour MPs seems to be waning, with some questioning his leadership.

Internal Dynamics Within Labour

The dissenting voices range across factions, generations, and levels of seniority within the party. From junior ministers to veteran MPs, the sentiment is consistent: Starmer is entering a critical phase. To his supporters, those advocating for his exit appear misguided. They argue that the public’s trust in Labour was restored under Starmer’s leadership, and now the party risks repeating the same divisions that plagued the Conservatives in their recent electoral struggles. A circulated document among Starmer’s allies states: “When the Tories lost the last election, Britons were most likely to see them as ‘only interested in themselves,’ ‘dishonest,’ and ‘divided.’” The implication is clear—Labour must avoid being labeled in the same way, and Burnham’s win could be a turning point in that effort.

However, the narrative is not entirely one-sided. While some MPs are critical of Starmer, others are increasingly aligned in their belief that Burnham’s path to Downing Street is inevitable. The term “coronation” has emerged as a descriptor for the upcoming leadership contest, suggesting that Burnham will be elected without significant opposition. This scenario would mirror the 2007 selection of Gordon Brown, who became leader and prime minister with minimal contest. Burnham, with his strong grassroots support and proven electoral appeal, is seen by many as the natural successor. Yet, the idea of a coronation assumes a lack of internal competition, which may not hold true if Starmer’s resolve to remain in power remains unshaken.

The Coronal Contest

The notion of a “coronation” has gained traction within Labour circles, indicating that Burnham’s leadership bid may proceed smoothly. The required threshold of 81 MPs to trigger a contest appears to be a hurdle that Burnham has already cleared, though the exact number of backers remains a point of debate. Some MPs believe that Burnham will secure the necessary support without a formal election, allowing him to assume the role of leader with minimal disruption. This scenario hinges on the assumption that Starmer, as incumbent, will not actively challenge his own position. But Starmer has already signaled his intention to remain a candidate, complicating the narrative of an uncontested transition.

One potential obstacle to Burnham’s coronation is Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary last month in protest against Starmer’s leadership. Streeting has insisted that he has the backing of 81 MPs, positioning himself as a viable alternative. While his colleagues may remain skeptical, the pressure on him to support Burnham is likely to mount. Streeting’s exit from the cabinet has left a vacuum in the leadership race, but his determination to contest could create a split within the party. The dynamics between these two factions will be crucial in determining the next steps for Labour.

Starmer’s decision to run in the leadership election is a strategic move that guarantees a vote among party members. Unlike Burnham, who must rally support from MPs to meet the threshold, Starmer is automatically included on the ballot as the current leader. This distinction means that even if Burnham emerges as the frontrunner, the election will still proceed, with members deciding the final outcome. The leadership contest could become a referendum on Starmer’s ability to maintain unity and steer the party forward. For him, the challenge is not just to retain his position but to demonstrate that his leadership is the best path to restore Labour’s credibility.

Leadership and Confidence

Starmer’s automatic inclusion in the election underscores his role as the party’s leader, but it also highlights a key tension: his leadership is tied to the confidence of MPs, not just party members. In the UK’s political system, a prime minister must command a majority of parliamentary support to remain in office. Starmer’s ability to do so will be tested as the leadership race unfolds. The situation echoes the 2022 resignation of Boris Johnson, who fell from power after failing to maintain the support of his colleagues. If Starmer’s standing among MPs falters, his position as prime minister could be at risk, even if he retains the leadership of the party.

The upcoming weeks will be critical for Starmer. He needs to convince both his allies and critics that his leadership is the most stable option for Labour. During a meeting with party staff this lunchtime, Starmer emphasized that a leadership election would “tear apart our party and our movement.” His argument is that the party is already in a precarious state, and internal strife could undermine its chances of success. Yet, the reality is that a leadership election may be unavoidable. If Burnham’s support grows, Starmer will have to defend his position, proving that his leadership is not the source of Labour’s current chaos.

Despite the growing unity among some MPs, the path to Burnham’s coronation is not without challenges. The Labour Party’s structure allows for a contest if 81 MPs demand it, and Starmer’s willingness to run ensures that the process will include a vote by members. This means the outcome could be influenced by both parliamentary support and grassroots sentiment. The question remains: does Starmer still have the backing of enough MPs to lead the government? The answer will emerge over the next few days, with implications for Labour’s future. Whether Burnham’s win marks the beginning of a new era or a continuation of Starmer’s leadership depends on how the party navigates this pivotal moment.

The Road Ahead

As the Labour Party prepares for the leadership contest, the focus is on balancing unity with the need for change. Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has provided a sense of momentum, but it also raises the stakes for the party’s internal dynamics. The term “coronation” suggests a smooth transition, yet the potential for conflict remains. Streeting’s challenge and Starmer’s resolve to stay in power are two forces that could shape the outcome. The role of party members in deciding the leader is a critical factor, as their preferences will determine the final result.

For Starmer, the election represents a test of his leadership. He must navigate the delicate balance between maintaining control and accommodating the desires of his colleagues. The pressure to demonstrate that his leadership is not the cause of Labour’s instability will be intense. If the election proceeds, it will be a chance for the party to address its divisions and chart a clear course forward. The coming days will reveal whether Starmer’s approach to governance has earned the trust of his MPs or if a change in leadership is inevitable.

Ultimately, the events following Burnham’s win will define the next chapter for Labour. Whether the party chooses to follow a coronation path or embrace a more contested process, the outcome will have lasting consequences. The internal debates and strategic calculations will shape not only the leadership but also the party’s ability to deliver on its promises. As the Labour Party moves forward, the challenge will be to unify its members while addressing the concerns that have led to this moment of uncertainty. The answer to Starmer’s future lies in the hands of his MPs, and the next few days will be decisive in determining the direction of the party.