Strategic Realignment: China’s Motivations Behind Visiting North Korea

Friendship or leverage – Xi Jinping’s recent trip to North Korea has sparked questions about the nature of China’s ties with its northern neighbor. While the two nations often highlight their bond as one rooted in shared history and mutual reliance, recent tensions suggest a more complex dynamic. North Korea, a country that China cannot fully control but is reluctant to abandon, has become a focal point for Beijing’s geopolitical maneuvering. The visit, occurring amid shifting global alliances, is seen by analysts as a calculated effort to reassert influence over a nation that remains both strategically vital and politically unpredictable.

The Weight of History and Current Uncertainty

China and North Korea’s relationship has long been defined by a mix of cooperation and tension. The two nations first established diplomatic ties in 1992, but their alliance has been tested over decades. The Korean War, which saw China and North Korea fight side by side, is often cited as the foundation of their bond. Yet, in recent years, mistrust has grown, particularly as North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have increasingly drawn attention away from China. The Chinese government has consistently sought to balance its support for Pyongyang with the need to avoid being entangled in regional conflicts.

North Korea’s unpredictable behavior has always been a concern for Beijing. While the country provides a buffer against potential threats from the South, it also poses risks through its aggressive military posture. This duality has led China to adopt a strategy of diplomatic engagement paired with strategic pressure. The recent visit by Xi Jinping is expected to reinforce Beijing’s role as a key player in North Korea’s affairs, even as the country strengthens its ties with Russia.

The Growing Ties with Russia

China’s apprehension about North Korea’s evolving partnership with Russia has deepened in recent months. The two countries have grown closer since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with North Korea offering military support in exchange for oil and aid. This alliance has not gone unnoticed by Western observers, who note its potential to reshape the regional balance of power. A mutual defense pact signed during Putin’s 2024 visit to Pyongyang underscores this shift, raising concerns in Beijing that Russia could become a dominant force in the north.

Analysts warn that this partnership might weaken China’s leverage over North Korea. “A more confident Kim Jong Un, less reliant on Beijing, could mean reduced Chinese influence in Pyongyang,” explains Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The lack of public enthusiasm during the 75th anniversary of Sino-North Korean diplomatic relations in October 2024 highlights the growing strain in their relationship. Unlike the warm exchanges with Moscow, China’s ambassador did not attend North Korea’s founding celebrations earlier that year, signaling a more reserved stance.

China’s strategic concerns are not unfounded. The 2,300 North Korean soldiers who fought for Russia in the Ukraine conflict, as reported by a BBC investigation, have drawn criticism from Washington and its allies. This development has alarmed China, as it fears a stronger North Korea could pose a challenge to its own interests. “China wants to protect its interests vis-à-vis North Korea at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang,” adds Panda. With only one formal defense treaty—signed with North Korea—Beijing is keen to prevent a scenario where Russia’s influence overshadows its own.

China’s Strategic Calculus

The visit by Xi Jinping to North Korea comes at a critical juncture for Beijing. Last year, China’s exports to the country reached a record $2.3bn, a stark reminder of the economic dependence that underpins their relationship. Despite this, Beijing has not fully endorsed North Korea’s nuclear program, opting instead for a cautious approach that allows it to maintain influence while avoiding direct confrontation with the United States.

Xi’s invitation to Kim Jong Un for a military parade in Beijing last year was a symbolic gesture to rekindle their alliance. The event, which marked their first formal summit in six years, showcased the two leaders side by side, reinforcing their shared commitment to strategic coordination. However, the absence of public remarks about North Korea’s nuclear arsenal during the visit suggests Beijing’s desire to keep the issue under the radar. This subtle strategy allows China to maintain its role as a key ally while avoiding the spotlight that could draw scrutiny from Western powers.

Meanwhile, the resumption of passenger train services between Beijing and Pyongyang earlier this year has been interpreted as another step in China’s efforts to reengage with the north. Analysts argue that such initiatives are part of a broader strategy to pull Pyongyang back into China’s orbit, even as the country deepens its military ties with Russia. “This is a calculated move to ensure North Korea remains aligned with China’s interests,” notes a diplomatic source cited by the BBC. The contrast between China’s diplomatic outreach and its quiet concerns about North Korea’s partnership with Moscow is clear.

A Delicate Balance

Seoul’s expectations for the visit are focused on whether China will position itself as a mediator between North Korea and the United States. While this could be a possibility, Beijing’s actions suggest a more self-interested approach. The Chinese leader’s meeting with Putin last week has likely influenced his strategy, as he seeks to maintain a multi-faceted approach to regional stability.

Lee Seong-hyon, a visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, highlights the dual nature of China’s stance. On one hand, the growing Russia-North Korea partnership “distracts Washington and complicates US strategy in multiple theaters,” indirectly benefiting China. However, this alliance could also lead to a stronger trilateral response from the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which would worry Beijing. “China is not endorsing North Korea’s nuclear program because it would increase US involvement in the region and its alliances,” Lee explains.

Victor Cha, president of the foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adds that China’s hesitation to take a strong stance against Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions is strategic. By aligning with North Korea on certain issues, Beijing avoids pushing the country further into Russia’s camp. Yet, the risk of a more assertive Kim Jong Un, who may prioritize Moscow’s support over Beijing’s, remains a concern. “China’s approach is to manage the relationship without destabilizing it,” Cha says. The visit to Pyongyang is thus a blend of reassurance and reinforcement, aiming to solidify China’s position as a key player in the region while keeping its interests aligned with global power dynamics.

As the world watches, the meeting between Xi and Kim is expected to be a turning point in their relationship. It reflects China’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex landscape where its alliance with North Korea is both a necessity and a challenge. The visit may not only reshape bilateral ties but also influence the broader geopolitical balance, with implications for the United States, Russia, and the entire Korean peninsula.