Experts Dispute US Claim of Iran’s Responsibility in Lamerd Attack

On the first day of the war, a deadly strike on Lamerd, a town in southern Iran, sparked debate among weapons specialists. US authorities claimed the attack was carried out by an Iranian missile, but multiple experts have questioned this assertion, citing technical details from the footage. Six analysts, who independently reviewed the video evidence, argued that the missile seen in the attack did not match Iran’s Hoveyzeh cruise missile, pointing to differences in visual characteristics, blast patterns, and the number of strikes in the area.

Verification and Initial Findings

Following the incident on 28 February, BBC Verify authenticated and geolocated CCTV footage released by Iranian state media. The video showed a munition detonating above a residential zone, leading experts to suggest it could have been a US missile. In its March 28 report, the outlet cited three analysts from Janes and a specialist at McKenzie Intelligence, who identified the weapon as a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) manufactured by Lockheed Martin. The US Central Command (Centcom) initially did not comment on this analysis but later released a statement on 31 March, asserting the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh missile.

“After reviewing the reports, U.S. Central Command has confirmed the accusations are false,” stated US Navy Capt Tim Hawkins. “US forces did not launch any strikes into Lamerd or within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury. The munition in the video appears twice as long, matching the Hoveyzeh’s dimensions.”

Despite Centcom’s denial, several experts disputed their conclusion. Amael Kotlarski of Janes noted that the Hoveyzeh missile features a belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings, which should be visible in any angle. However, the footage from Lamerd showed no such markings. Another McKenzie Intelligence analyst added that the weapon lacked external wings or an engine, with canard fins—consistent with a PrSM—clearly visible. Trevor Ball of Bellingcat also emphasized that the missile’s length and silhouette were more in line with a PrSM than the Hoveyzeh.

Minab Strikes and Ongoing Controversy

On the same day as the Lamerd attack, nearly 400km to the east, strikes targeted a school and a military base in Minab, killing 168 individuals, according to Iranian officials. Video analysis indicated a US Tomahawk missile might have hit the site. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the incident was under investigation, reiterating that “US forces never target civilian locations.”

While the US claims the attack was not a PrSM, experts remain unconvinced. They highlighted the PrSM’s airburst capability, which disperses fragments over a wider area—consistent with the mid-air explosion captured in the verified footage. Even with low-resolution imagery, the key details of the detonation align more closely with the US missile’s design than the Hoveyzeh’s. The disagreement underscores the complexity of identifying weapons in conflict zones, with both sides presenting arguments based on technical features and strategic context.