Early Release Scheme Could See Dangerous Criminals Freed
Constantvpn.com – The early release scheme could see dangerous offenders back on UK streets sooner than many voters expect. The government’s plan to pull forward the release of approximately 4,500 prisoners in phased batches starting this October has ignited a fierce political row. Conservatives on the backbench warn that the measure, as drafted, effectively trades one group of high-risk inmates for another, leaving communities exposed.
How the scheme works and who is excluded
The mechanism was built to relieve acute overcrowding across England and Wales’ prison estate. Several categories of offenders have been carved out entirely from eligibility: those convicted of rape, individuals found guilty of serious child sex offences, anyone sentenced for grooming, and — following a sustained public campaign — all manslaughter convicts. These exclusions have narrowed the pool of prisoners expected to benefit relative to earlier projections, tightening the capacity arithmetic the Ministry of Justice must manage.
The manslaughter carve-out traces directly to the family of Police Constable Andrew Harper, killed in 2019. Their years-long campaign persuaded the prime minister to announce over the weekend that manslaughter prisoners would be barred from the scheme. Two men convicted over Harper’s death had originally been slated to come out under the initial timetable.
The indefinite-sentence dilemma
To free physical space for remaining inmates, ministers have turned to prisoners serving IPPs — imprisonment for public protection sentences handed down between 2005 and 2012 for offenders judged to pose a significant risk of serious harm. Once a minimum term expires, release rests entirely with the Parole Board. In practice, many IPP prisoners remain locked up indefinitely.
Ministry of Justice data current to June of this year records 2,271 people still serving IPPs. Of that total, 856 have never been released because the Board concluded it was not safe to do so. Shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy seized on the figure to argue the government’s position is internally contradictory.
“By definition, the people who are still in prison on those sentences are dangerous, because they’ve all been considered by independent expert assessors who have concluded that they are not safe to release and they would be a danger to the public.”
Timothy acknowledged that successive Conservative governments had failed to build sufficient prison capacity, but maintained that terminating indefinite sentences for those still serving them would require fresh legislation — a process that could take years before any meaningful space is freed.
Government’s defence and additional levers
Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones rejected the suggestion the scheme endangers the public. Speaking to the BBC, she stated:
“We will do nothing that would risk the public or put the public at danger.”
She stressed that public safety is the government’s “number one priority” and that a functioning criminal justice system depends on adequate prison capacity. On the IPP question specifically, she said each case would be examined individually, appropriate legislation would be passed, and the process would be handled responsibly. Those eventually released would remain under monitoring.
The prime minister told the BBC over the weekend that legislation to terminate existing IPPs would be tabled before the end of the current Parliament. He conceded that among those offenders there would be “individuals who would pose a risk to communities,” and announced a cross-party oversight group to scrutinise the process.
Beyond the IPP question, the government is pursuing further measures. Foreign nationals sentenced to prison will be deported at the point of sentencing rather than allowed to serve time in UK facilities. Davies-Jones described the rationale plainly: offenders should not “serve a day at his Majesty’s and at the taxpayers pleasure.” When asked whether those deported would still serve sentences in their home countries, she replied that would be “for the determination of their country of origin.”
Frequently asked questions
When does the phased release begin? Staged batches are scheduled to start this October, with roughly 4,500 inmates expected to benefit over the programme’s lifetime.
Which offences are excluded from early release? Rape, serious child sex offences, grooming, and manslaughter are all carved out. The manslaughter exclusion was secured through the Harper family’s campaign after PC Andrew Harper was killed in 2019.
What happens to prisoners serving indefinite (IPP) sentences? The government has committed to introducing legislation before the end of the current Parliament to terminate existing IPPs. A cross-party oversight group will scrutinise individual cases, and released individuals will remain under monitoring.
Will foreign-national prisoners still serve their sentences? They will be deported at sentencing. Whether they continue serving time in their home country is, in the minister’s words, “for the determination of their country of origin.”
