Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The ongoing ceasefire discussions in Pakistan rest on the shared interests of the United States and Iran in halting the conflict. However, the success of these talks faces significant hurdles, including a deep-seated lack of trust and divergent priorities. Meanwhile, Israel’s intensified military actions in Lebanon, which have escalated tensions, complicate the situation further.

US President Donald Trump has already framed the war in past tense, signaling a desire for an exit. With upcoming events such as a royal visit from King Charles and a summit with President Xi Jinping in May, as well as the looming midterm elections in November, the administration seeks to align its military campaign with political momentum. The summer season also brings pressure to lower fuel prices, which have surged since the conflict began.

Iran, too, has its own motives for ending the war. Despite its defiant stance and continued capability to deploy missiles and drones, the country has endured severe economic strain. Cities are struggling to function, and the regime is now focused on recovery. Social media campaigns, including AI-generated videos mocking Trump, reflect a strategic effort to maintain influence during this period.

Pakistan’s role as an intermediary is critical but challenging. The gap between the two sides’ positions is vast, with Trump’s 15-point plan appearing more like a surrender document than a negotiating framework. Iran’s 10-point demands, many of which the US has previously dismissed, remain unresolved. For a lasting truce to emerge, both parties must agree to keep dialogue alive, even amid unresolved disputes.

Amid these talks, a pressing issue looms: reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s control over this vital waterway has allowed it to exert economic pressure on global markets. The US and Israel’s attacks have disrupted shipping, making the strait’s restoration a central concern. Without a resolution, the chokehold on trade persists.

The millions of civilians in the Middle East, caught in the crossfire, await a resolution that could mark the end of the conflict. Yet, the war began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched major strikes against Iran, killing its supreme leader, his wife, and other family members. Trump had anticipated a swift victory, akin to the US military’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his spouse in January. However, the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamanei’s family has not led to the regime’s collapse, as his son Mojtaba remains absent since assuming the role of successor.

“A capital V military victory,” stated US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, underscoring the administration’s confidence in its actions. Yet, despite tactical successes, the US and Israel have not yet achieved lasting geopolitical gains. Iran, though weakened, remains intact and capable of continuing its resistance.

The war has already altered the region’s power dynamics, and its long-term effects will further reshape the landscape. While Iran’s armed forces and infrastructure have taken heavy damage, the regime’s resilience has surprised even its adversaries. Trump’s representatives, led by Vice-President JD Vance, now face the daunting task of negotiating with a foe they claim to have defeated.