Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

In 1991, during the early stages of the Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush addressed a crowd at a Patriot interceptor factory in Massachusetts. His speech, delivered on February 15, likely haunted him for years. At the time, the United States and its allies were launching a massive military campaign to drive Iraqi forces from Kuwait, while the air strikes were already pounding Baghdad and its suburbs. The factory’s workers celebrated the weapon they had crafted, which was expected to play a key role in the conflict.

Bush’s remarks, however, extended beyond military strategy. He suggested that Saddam Hussein could be compelled to step down not just through UN resolutions, but by the Iraqi people themselves. This idea, though seemingly optimistic, set the stage for a dramatic chain of events. The president returned to mobilizing American troops, yet some Iraqis interpreted his words as a call to action, sparking revolts in the country’s south and north.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”

Despite the initial hope, the ceasefire allowed Hussein to retain power. His regime, weakened but not defeated, launched a counteroffensive that claimed thousands of lives. The Kurdish and Shia uprisings, which had been fueled by Bush’s rhetoric, were crushed with brutal efficiency. Meanwhile, the author was stationed in the Kurdish mountains, documenting the aftermath as families carried the remains of children killed by exposure or disease.

Years later, the echoes of that 1991 moment resurface. Today, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu urge the Iranian people to rise against their government, offering them a chance to topple the Islamic Republic. Yet, unlike the UN-backed intervention in 1991, there is no clear promise of direct support. The parallels are striking: a leader’s words ignite hope, but without follow-through, the outcome can be catastrophic.

The initial Gulf War also paved the way for future conflicts. The removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003, a mission led by his son, marked a turning point that bolstered Iran’s regional influence. Now, the focus shifts to countering that rise, with airstrikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. Israel, in particular, views these ambitions as existential threats. Trump’s current strategy, while ambitious, risks repeating the same mistakes that followed Bush’s initial call to arms.