UK’s Military Shrinkage Amid Defence Spending Concerns

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised alarms over the UK’s current defence strategy, claiming it jeopardizes national security. His critique centers on the reluctance to allocate sufficient funds, arguing that relying on a growing welfare budget is insufficient for maintaining military strength. BBC Verify has examined the current state of the UK armed forces, revealing significant reductions since the end of the Cold War.

Personnel Numbers Have Declined Dramatically

In 1990, the British Army boasted 153,000 regular soldiers. Today, that number has shrunk to 73,790. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) suggested the army should not fall below 73,000. Yet, applications for recruitment have dropped by approximately 40% in 2025 alone, compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the reserve force has also dwindled, decreasing from 76,000 to 25,770 since 1990.

Naval and Air Forces Face Challenges

The Royal Navy, which once had 48 major combat ships—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—now operates only 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. This decline has sparked debates about readiness, especially after HMS Dragon took weeks to reach the Gulf to support a RAF base in Cyprus. The RAF, too, has seen a shift: while it had over 300 combat jets in 1990, its current fleet includes 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and at least 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are more advanced but fewer in number.

Uncrewed Systems Emerge as New Frontier

Drones, or uncrewed aircraft systems, now play a role in the UK’s air capabilities—a technology absent in 1990. Their impact is evident in the Ukraine conflict, where they have proven more lethal than traditional artillery. Analysts stress the need for greater investment in such systems, yet the UK’s defence budget remains a focal point of scrutiny.

Government’s Spending Ambitions

Despite criticism, the government asserts it is increasing defence funding to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, aiming for 3% in the next Parliament. However, this goal is seen as modest, given the long-term decline in defence spending since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Lord Robertson’s key point is the contrast between defence and welfare expenditures, noting that welfare now consumes more than defence, with projections of reaching 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade.

Procurement Delays Highlight Systemic Issues

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) oversees 47 out of 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in 2024-25. A December report from the National Audit Office (NAO) criticized the MoD’s performance, flagging 12 projects as “Red”—indicating their completion seems unlikely. The NAO also pointed out that contracts for projects over £20 million often take six and a half years to finalize. The 2025 SDR proposed a “segmented approach” to address these delays, advocating for faster contract delivery within two years.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” warned Lord Robertson.

Global threats, including Russia’s resurgence since 2022 and uncertainties in NATO’s future, are cited as reasons for raising defence investment. However, questions persist about the effectiveness of current strategies amid shrinking forces and procurement hurdles.