After 16 Years in Power, Can Viktor Orban Finally Be Unseated?

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has faced mounting pressure as his 16-year tenure comes under scrutiny. At a recent rally in Györ, he erupted in frustration, accusing opponents of spreading negativity. “All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction,” he growled, reflecting a shift in his public persona. His typically composed demeanor was momentarily disrupted by the outburst, revealing a more combative side amid a campaign that has intensified in recent weeks.

Opinion polls suggest the opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, could surpass Orban’s Fidesz by a significant margin. The latest survey shows Tisza with 58% support versus Fidesz’s 35%. This marks a dramatic reversal for a leader who once dominated Hungarian politics. As the April 12 election approaches, Orban is rallying his base, targeting undecided voters in a bid to salvage his position.

“We can notice a big change in public perception,” said Endre Hann of Median agency. In January, 44% of respondents believed Fidesz would win, but by March, 47% favored Tisza. “This reflects a huge change of trust. People believe that it can be changed,” he added.

Orban’s government has long been a symbol of conservative governance, supported by global figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Yet, his policies have clashed with EU values, particularly on Ukraine. Now, critics argue that his rule, once seen as a model for European nationalists, is facing its toughest challenge yet.

Public frustration with perceived corruption has grown, with Orban and his allies accused of siphoning state funds into personal pockets. Projects like bridges and stadiums have drawn scrutiny, linked to companies connected to his inner circle. His son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, controls prominent hotels, while a childhood friend, Lörinc Meszaros, has become the nation’s richest individual. Orban denies any wrongdoing, insisting these ties reflect a nationalistic vision.

Recent weeks have seen a surge in accusations against Fidesz, from voter intimidation tactics to a Russian-backed plan for a staged assassination attempt. However, the party claims these stories are part of a smear campaign. “All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative,” said Zoltan Kiszelly of the government’s Szazadveg think tank. “When the opposition loses, it gives them an excuse to call it ‘fraud’.”

Gabor Török, a respected political analyst, noted the erosion of Orban’s carefully maintained image. “This is not the ‘calm strength’ or ‘strategic calm’ he once projected,” he wrote. “If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side.”

The stakes extend beyond Hungary. Michael Ignatieff, former rector of Central European University, views the election as a test for illiberal democracy. “Budapest is the headquarters of this model,” he argued. “This isn’t just an election—it’s a referendum on authoritarian rule.”