Dozens of Ships Navigate Hormuz After US-Iran Agreement

Dozens of ships head through Strait – Following the recent agreement between the United States and Iran to ease tensions, maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that at least 172 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the deal was signed. This includes 42 ships on Saturday alone, marking a notable uptick in traffic. However, the current volume remains significantly lower than the pre-conflict average of approximately 138 crossings per day, highlighting the cautious nature of the resumption of trade in the region.

Shift in Transit Patterns

Ship-tracking data analyzed by BBC Verify indicates that over 200 oil tankers are reportedly stalled within the strait on Tuesday. At least 10 vessels have moved westward into the Gulf so far, with the majority of these ships linked to Iran after the US naval blockade was lifted as part of the agreement. Jemima Shelley, a senior analyst with the United Against Nuclear Iran campaign, noted that 30 tankers have already departed from the Gulf, loaded with Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, since the deal was finalized.

The US Treasury has also played a role by easing long-standing sanctions through a temporary license. This allows the sale of Iranian oil products until 21 August, providing some relief for international buyers. Despite this, the return to normalcy has been gradual, with ship movements still far from pre-war levels. On Monday, at least five previously sanctioned tankers traversed the strait, carrying up to four million barrels of oil, according to tracking reports.

Strategic Route Choices

Recent transits have predominantly followed the Iranian-approved northern route, which passes through Iranian territorial waters. This contrasts with the US-recommended southern path near Oman’s coast, a route deemed safer due to ongoing mine-clearance efforts. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational body involving the US, has advised vessels to take the southern route, claiming it has been verified as mine-free. This guidance has influenced shipping patterns, with some tankers opting for the safer corridor despite the logistical challenges.

Shelley highlighted that while the deal has allowed Iranian ships to resume transit, the situation remains fluid. “We saw tankers passing along the southern corridor at the end of last week and then when Iran declared the strait closed again on Saturday 20 June the transits stalled,” she explained. “There has been some resumption of tankers passing today but still only a trickle,” she added, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the agreement’s implementation.

Oil Market Reactions

The deal has also impacted global energy markets, with the price of Brent crude oil hitting its lowest point since the conflict began. This decline reflects growing concerns over the stability of the region and the potential for increased oil exports from Iran. However, the slower-than-expected flow of ships has tempered the market’s response, as many remain hesitant to commit to large-scale trade operations.

Analysts suggest that the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has kept maritime activity subdued. Over 250 oil tankers and 440 cargo ships are still anchored or stationary within the Gulf, according to their last recorded positions. About 80% of these vessels are reportedly waiting for favorable conditions, while a smaller portion is actively transporting goods.

Conflicting Messages from Iran

Iran has sent mixed signals regarding the strait’s status, complicating the flow of traffic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Saturday that the strait had been closed in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, though some commercial vessels continued to move. By Tuesday, Tehran’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva stated the strait was open, while a military source hinted at a daily cap on transits, as reported by an Iranian news outlet.

These conflicting statements have added to the uncertainty. The Iranian-backed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) published its transit terms on Friday, requiring all ships to obtain a valid permit from the agency. However, the US has sanctioned the PGSA, potentially deterring some shipowners from applying for Iranian permits. “The sanctions may be holding some operators back,” Shelley observed, noting the bureaucratic hurdles in the wake of the deal.

Challenges and Ongoing Concerns

Sea mines in the central portion of the strait have also contributed to the hesitancy among ship operators. The JMIC has issued warnings to avoid this area, citing the presence of mines and ongoing clearance operations. While the agency has identified two mines and coordinated their removal, the threat of uncharted dangers persists. This has led to a shift in shipping routes, with more vessels opting for the southern corridor to minimize risk.

Despite the agreement’s provisions for “safe passage” of commercial ships for 60 days, the actual implementation has been uneven. Iran has committed to working with Oman to establish the strait’s future administration, but the lack of consistent communication has created friction. The deal’s promise of neutral access to the strait is being tested by both the US and Iranian strategies, which continue to influence the flow of maritime traffic.

Implications for Regional Dynamics

The resumption of ship movements through the strait signals a tentative return to stability, though challenges remain. The lifting of the US naval blockade has enabled Iranian vessels to re-enter the market, but the persistence of sanctions and the mine threat has limited their impact. Meanwhile, the southern route, though narrower, has become a preferred alternative for many traders seeking to bypass Iranian control.

Analysts like Martin Kelly of the EOS Risk Group have noted that the deal has not only restored Iranian oil exports but also encouraged a broader revival of normal trade. “There has been an increase in ‘normal’ trade too,” Kelly stated, pointing to the movement of four liquefied natural gas tankers toward Qatar’s Ras Laffan port on Monday and three tankers alongside three cargo vessels departing the Gulf on Tuesday. These developments suggest a gradual shift in maritime dynamics, even as tensions linger.

As the situation evolves, the interplay between diplomatic assurances and operational realities will determine the pace of recovery. The continued presence of over 200 tankers in the strait underscores the cautious approach of the shipping industry, which is balancing economic opportunities with the risks of geopolitical instability. With the agreement’s provisions still being tested, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical but volatile chokepoint in global trade.

Ultimately, the return to routine shipping patterns hinges on the resolution of lingering concerns. Whether the US-Iran deal will lead to sustained activity or merely a temporary reprieve depends on the coordination between the two nations and the willingness of shipowners to navigate the complex regulatory and security landscape. For now, the strait continues to serve as a barometer of regional stability, with each vessel that crosses its waters symbolizing progress toward a more predictable future.