Six Key Indicators of Sir Keir Starmer’s Premiership

Sir Keir Starmer s premiership in six – On Monday, Sir Keir Starmer stepped down as prime minister following a loss of support from his parliamentary colleagues and core cabinet members. BBC Verify has analyzed his tenure through six critical areas, highlighting trends in economic growth, immigration, energy costs, healthcare access, and welfare spending since he assumed office in July 2024.

Economic Growth and Global Projections

The UK economy experienced a brief surge in early 2026, with OECD data showing a 0.6% expansion in the first quarter. This marked the fastest growth among G7 nations at that time, though it was still outpaced by the US, which saw a 3.7% increase over the same period. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decline in performance, projecting UK GDP growth of 0.8% for 2026 and a slower rate in 2027 compared to the US and Canada. The slowdown is attributed to the energy crisis triggered by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which has disrupted global markets and inflamed inflationary pressures.

“To secure the highest sustained growth in the G7,” promised Labour’s manifesto, setting a bold target for the nation’s economic trajectory. While the initial growth figures suggest some progress, the long-term outlook remains uncertain.

Immigration Trends and Public Perception

Immigration data reveals a significant shift under Starmer’s leadership. Despite his pledge to “smash the gangs” behind small boat crossings, the number of such arrivals has continued to rise. By 2025, the total crossings exceeded 200,000, surpassing the 2018 milestone. However, recent reports indicate a 40% drop in crossings detected in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, signaling a potential slowdown.

Public opinion has also reflected this trend. In August 2024, a YouGov poll showed only 36% of voters rated Starmer’s performance as positive, with 43% viewing it as negative, resulting in a net popularity score of -7. By this month, the numbers had worsened, with 74% of respondents expressing dissatisfaction versus 18% who remained supportive, pushing his net rating to -56. Ipsos data further shows his personal approval ratings lagging behind those of his predecessors, including Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May.

Healthcare Access and Waiting Times

Starmer’s government prioritized healthcare reform, aiming to ensure 92% of patients in England are treated within 18 weeks by the end of the parliamentary term. As of April 2026, this target had improved slightly, with 65% of patients receiving care within the timeframe—up from 58.9% in June 2024. The overall number of treatment waits in England dropped to 7.22 million in April, a decrease of 400,000 from the 7.62 million recorded the previous year.

“Our goal is to deliver faster access to care,” Starmer emphasized during his first major health policy address. While progress is evident, the challenge of meeting the 18-week target persists, particularly in light of staffing shortages and rising demand.

Energy Bills and Household Costs

Labour’s commitment to reducing energy bills by over £300 annually faced setbacks. The latest domestic price cap set by Ofgem for the summer of 2026 stands at £1,862 per household, an increase of nearly £300 from the £1,568 cap in place during the summer of 2024. This rise is largely due to the impact of global events, including the Iran conflict, which has driven energy prices higher.

Despite the government’s efforts, the average household energy bill has grown rather than decreased. The energy shock has created a dilemma, as Starmer’s team inherited a pricing structure from the previous Conservative administration that has since been further strained by external factors.

Welfare Spending and Policy Adjustments

Starmer sought to address the rising welfare costs by removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit, a move aimed at supporting families and reducing child poverty. According to an official impact assessment, this policy could prevent 450,000 additional children from falling into relative poverty after housing costs by the end of the Parliament.

However, his attempt to curb the working-age welfare bill faced resistance. In June 2025, backbenchers forced him to backtrack on plans to limit benefits, leading to an anticipated rise in the total welfare bill. Forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predict the welfare cost will grow from 10.7% of GDP in 2024-25 to 11.1% by 2029-30. A major contributor to this increase is projected to be health and disability benefits, with the bill for working-age adults set to rise from £58.2bn to £78.1bn over the same period.

Immigration and Net Migration

Net migration to the UK has dropped substantially since Starmer took office. The most recent official estimate for 2025 recorded net migration at 171,000, a 48% decline from the previous year. This marks a sharp contrast to the peak annual rate of 944,000 under the Conservative government in 2023. While the number of arrivals via small boats has remained high, the overall trend suggests a more balanced migration pattern.

Legacy and Challenges Ahead

Starmer’s premiership has been defined by both progress and setbacks. The economic growth figures show early promise, but global events threaten to undermine his achievements. Immigration policy has seen a mix of high arrivals and improved net figures, while healthcare access has improved, albeit slowly. Energy bills have increased, and welfare spending continues to climb, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of his economic plans.

As his tenure concludes, the data underscores a complex picture. Starmer’s government has managed to stabilize some areas, but challenges in others—particularly energy costs and welfare spending—highlight the difficulties of navigating a rapidly changing political and economic landscape. The public’s shifting perception of his leadership adds to the pressure, as his team seeks to balance competing priorities and maintain momentum for their policy agenda.