Grab what you can while you can: The new reality in the South China Sea

Grab what you can while you can – Antelope Reef, a small, teardrop-shaped feature in the north-western part of the South China Sea, has undergone a remarkable transformation this year. Once mostly submerged, it now stands as a 6-sq-km (2.3-sq-mile) crescent of solid land, its white sand gleaming under the sun. This rapid development, completed in just six months, has turned the once-turquoise speck on the map into a striking example of territorial expansion. The lagoon surrounding the newly formed land is dotted with ships, likely cutter suction dredgers—machines capable of extracting up to 6,000 cubic metres of material per hour. This volume is enough to fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools every hour, underscoring the scale of China’s efforts.

The Rapid Expansion of Land in the South China Sea

China’s aggressive land reclamation has been a defining feature of its strategy in the region. The Paracel Islands, where Antelope Reef is located, have been under Chinese control since 1974, following a decisive military engagement with South Vietnamese forces. More recently, the country has extended its dominance by transforming three Spratly Islands—Mischief, Fiery Cross, and Subi—into landmasses large enough to support airports and military bases. These projects, part of the infamous nine-dash line, have allowed China to claim vast swaths of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory.

Chinese coastguard vessels and maritime militia now patrol these newly created islands with assertiveness, effectively sidelining challenges from other claimants. The Philippines, for instance, has seen frequent clashes with Chinese ships in areas they both dispute. Despite this, Vietnam has taken a more nuanced approach, balancing confrontation with diplomacy. The country’s communist government has softened its anti-Chinese stance in recent years, fostering closer ties with Beijing. This diplomatic shift coincides with Vietnam’s own accelerated efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea, using powerful dredgers similar to those employed by China.

Vietnam’s Strategic Dredging Campaign

According to the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), Vietnam has been actively reclaiming land on at least 20 reefs over the past three years. This has led to the creation of 11 new harbours, significantly expanding its maritime infrastructure. Vietnam now controls more than 11 sq km of reclaimed land, roughly half the area China has developed. The country is also constructing military-grade facilities, including navigation beacons, to strengthen its presence in the region.

While Vietnam’s actions are less visible than China’s, they signal a strategic push to counter Beijing’s dominance. The recent construction on Antelope Reef, in particular, raises questions about its purpose. A straight-line edge on the reef’s new shoreline suggests the possibility of another military runway, echoing the infrastructure China has built on Mischief, Fiery Cross, and Subi. However, Vietnam already has a functional airstrip on Woody Island, a nearby island under its control. This raises the question: is Antelope Reef’s development a direct challenge to China, or a subtle move to assert its own claims?

Vietnam’s approach appears to blend diplomacy with military preparedness. While it has formally protested China’s activities on Antelope Reef, the tone remains measured, avoiding overt confrontation. This restraint has allowed Vietnam to operate in the shadows, gradually expanding its capabilities without provoking immediate backlash. Greg Poling, director of the AMTI, notes that Vietnam has been less willing to lead the public debate on its disagreements with China. “They’re much more comfortable letting the Filipinos take the spotlight,” he explains. “But on the water, they’ve shown a willingness to stand up to Beijing.” This dual strategy has enabled Vietnam to secure strategic advantages without escalating tensions.

The Tug-of-War Over Resources and Influence

The South China Sea is not just a geographical area—it is a battleground for resources, trade routes, and geopolitical influence. With over 70% of the region’s fisheries and significant oil and gas reserves, the area holds immense economic value. China’s rapid reclamation projects have allowed it to dominate the region, but Vietnam’s recent efforts suggest a calculated attempt to challenge that supremacy.

Ray Powell, director of Sealight—a research initiative based at Stanford University—points out that Vietnam’s reclamation of Antelope Reef could be a response to China’s focus on the Philippines. “Vietnam has been taking advantage of China’s attention on the Philippines,” Powell observes. “This project might be part of a broader effort to assert its claims in a less contested environment.” The timing of Antelope Reef’s development, coinciding with China’s heightened activity in the Spratlys, may reflect a strategic shift in the balance of power.

While China’s nine-dash line claims almost the entire South China Sea, its dominance is not absolute. Vietnam’s reclamation efforts, combined with diplomatic engagement, have created a more complex landscape. The country’s communist authorities have sought to align with China on certain issues, such as avoiding direct confrontations in the Paracels, while maintaining a firm stance in the Spratlys. This pragmatic approach has allowed Vietnam to consolidate its position without sacrificing its claims.

The Implications of Rapid Reclamation

The speed and scale of China’s and Vietnam’s land reclamation efforts raise important questions about the future of the South China Sea. Both countries are investing heavily in infrastructure, not just for military purposes but also to support economic activities like fishing and shipping. The transformation of Antelope Reef, for example, could provide Vietnam with a foothold to exploit its resources while also serving as a symbol of its growing influence.

Yet, the competition for land and resources is far from over. The nine-dash line remains a source of contention, with other claimants like Malaysia and Brunei also vying for control. China’s ability to create land so quickly has set a precedent, pressuring smaller nations to follow suit. The result is a region where the physical landscape is constantly shifting, reflecting the dynamic nature of territorial disputes.

As the South China Sea becomes increasingly militarized, the balance of power may tip in unexpected ways. While China continues to assert its dominance, Vietnam’s growing presence suggests a more resilient challenge. The future of the region will depend on how these two nations navigate their competing interests, with Antelope Reef serving as a microcosm of the broader struggle. The question remains: can any nation truly “grab what you can while you can,” or will the relentless expansion of land eventually lead to a new era of cooperation or conflict?

“The Vietnamese have been less willing to be at the forefront of the public relations battle over their disagreements with China,” says Greg Poling, who runs the AMTI. “They’re much more comfortable letting the Filipinos do that. But on the water we have seen the Vietnamese being far more willing to stand up to Beijing.”

China’s rapid reclamation of Antelope Reef and other islands highlights its commitment to shaping the region according to its interests. At the same time, Vietnam’s parallel efforts underscore its determination to assert its own claims without direct confrontation. The interplay between these two strategies will likely define the South China Sea’s future, as nations continue to build their influence through both diplomacy and hard power.