What does Makerfield make of by-election and can Burnham win?

What does Makerfield make of by election – Residents of Makerfield are now poised to become the focal point of a political showdown that could reshape the nation’s leadership landscape. The upcoming by-election, set to take place in late June, is not just a local affair—it holds the potential to ignite a broader contest for the prime minister’s position. This constituency, which spans the suburbs of Wigan and surrounding former coal mining communities, has long been a Labour stronghold. Yet its recent shift toward Reform UK in local council elections signals a growing political tide that could challenge the party’s dominance. For Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the contest represents both a test of his leadership and a critical opportunity to retain control of the Labour Party’s direction.

The By-election’s Strategic Importance

Makerfield, with its approximately 76,000 registered voters, is no stranger to political change. While it has remained a Labour safe seat since its creation in 1983, the recent surge of Reform UK’s influence across the UK has cast a shadow over the party’s traditional dominance. The by-election is seen as a litmus test for Starmer’s leadership, with many of his MPs pressing for his resignation amid concerns about the party’s trajectory. Reform’s entry into the race, however, is not merely symbolic—it could serve as a catalyst for a larger internal Labour contest, potentially setting the stage for a new leader in the autumn.

Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, has positioned himself as the most likely successor to Starmer. His decision to run in the by-election marks a pivotal moment, as it removes the need to step down from his mayoral role to pursue the PM position. If successful, Burnham would be the first Labour leader to emerge from a by-election since the party’s last national leadership contest in 2020. But the challenge he faces is formidable, with Reform UK vowing to “throw everything” at the contest. The party’s leader, Nigel Farage, has already hinted at a full-scale campaign to unseat the sitting MP, Josh Simons, who has announced his candidacy to make way for Burnham.

Burnham’s Path to Leadership

Burnham’s path to the top of the UK’s political hierarchy is well-trodden. A seasoned Labour MP, he has served the Leigh constituency for over a decade, winning four consecutive elections before transitioning to the mayoral role in 2017. His experience in Westminster, coupled with his record as a minister, has made him a prominent figure within the party. Yet, his current campaign in Makerfield is being scrutinized by both supporters and critics. Some argue that his leadership credentials are solid, while others question his commitment to the party’s core values.

The by-election is also a key moment in Burnham’s personal political journey. Although he has not yet resigned as mayor, the contest offers him a chance to re-enter the national arena. A victory would not only solidify his position as a leading contender for the Labour leadership but also elevate his profile as a potential prime minister. However, failure could leave him vulnerable to accusations of opportunism, especially in a constituency where trust in Labour’s policies has waned. This tension is evident in the opinions of local voters, who are divided on whether Burnham is the right choice to lead the party forward.

Voter Perspectives and Concerns

For many residents of Makerfield, the by-election is more than a political event—it’s a referendum on the future of their community. Nursery worker Penelope Nelson, who describes herself and her family as “Burnham fans,” acknowledges his strengths but remains cautious. “He genuinely understands the needs of the community and consistently advocates for them,” she said. “I think that’s great.” However, she admits that Burnham’s success in the race will depend on his ability to counter Reform UK’s messaging, which has resonated with voters disillusioned by Labour’s recent performance.

“This has been a Labour stronghold since I’ve been voting for 45 years, but I do think he’ll really struggle with this one,” said Stan Crook, a retired voter. “The biggest issue is Labour in general have let the whole country down, not just this area. Nobody’s got any faith in Keir Starmer… he’s not done enough.”

Crook’s skepticism reflects a broader sentiment among some locals. He questions Burnham’s motives, suggesting that the mayor’s ambitions may be self-serving. “He’s standing for election to feather his own cap—hoping to get into Westminster,” Crook added. Others, however, see Burnham as a necessary alternative. Alan Entwistle, a carpet cleaner, praised the mayor’s record, highlighting his achievements in public transport. “He’s done brilliantly with the buses and everything else,” Entwistle said. “He knows what he’s doing.”

Meanwhile, Gabriel Parkinson, a charity sector worker, expressed a preference for the Green Party but conceded that Burnham is the best option to counter Reform’s threat. “We don’t have a better choice than him,” she said. “He’s the only one standing against them.” These mixed opinions underscore the complexity of the race, where Burnham must navigate both internal party dynamics and external political pressures.

The Process and Timeline

Burnham’s candidacy is not automatic. To run in the by-election, he will first need approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which has previously barred him from competing in similar contests. The NEC’s decision in February to block his participation in the Gorton and Denton by-election was a setback, but sources suggest Starmer will not attempt to stop him this time. The local Labour Party in Makerfield will also play a role in endorsing his bid, adding another layer of scrutiny to his campaign.

The timeline for the by-election is tightly scheduled. With the earliest possible date set for Thursday, 18 June, the contest will coincide with Starmer’s attendance at the G7 summit in France. This timing is deliberate, as it places the prime minister in a high-profile international setting while the electorate focuses on the local race. For Burnham, the opportunity to challenge Starmer is both a strategic and symbolic move, but the stakes are high. A loss could weaken his chances of leading the Labour Party in the future, while a win would reignite hopes for a leadership transition in the autumn.

Reform UK’s ambition to take control of Makerfield is clear. The party’s surge in local elections has demonstrated its ability to mobilize support in areas where Labour’s influence is fading. With Farage promising a robust campaign, the by-election could become a battleground for broader ideological shifts. If Reform succeeds, it would signal a growing appetite for change in a region that once reliably backed the Labour Party. However, the outcome will also depend on how effectively Burnham can rally support, balancing his mayoral achievements with his vision for national leadership.

As the campaign heats up, the by-election in Makerfield is being watched closely. It may not just determine the next Labour leader—it could also reflect the electorate’s growing impatience with the current government. For Burnham, the challenge is to prove that he can lead the party back to prominence, even as he faces a well-organized opposition and a divided electorate. The results of this contest will undoubtedly shape the political landscape for months to come.