Trump and Xi are set to meet. Where do US-China tariffs stand?

Trump and Xi are set to meet – The Chinese capital has announced that US President Donald Trump will visit during the week of May 13-15 to hold talks with Xi Jinping. This gathering represents the first such encounter between a US president and the Chinese leader in almost a decade, occurring at a critical juncture in the relationship between the world’s two leading economic powers. Accompanying Trump on the trip are executives from major American corporations, such as Boeing, Citigroup, and Qualcomm, who are anticipated to engage in discussions aimed at securing business agreements with Chinese counterparts.

A Fragile Trade Truce Under Scrutiny

The impending meeting is seen as a pivotal opportunity to assess the state of the US-China trade truce. In April 2025, Trump introduced a broad range of import taxes, targeting nations regardless of their political alignment. This policy catalyzed a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs between the US and China, which reached over 100% in some sectors. The latest round of tariffs, however, has seen temporary pauses following the leaders’ last in-person meeting in South Korea last October. Despite this pause, both sides have continued to issue trade threats, raising questions about the sustainability of the fragile agreement.

The Trade War’s Genesis

Trump’s 2016 campaign centered on revitalizing American manufacturing and ensuring fair trade practices. His administration’s 2018 decision to impose tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods marked a turning point, with many analysts citing this as the start of the trade conflict. Simultaneously, Trump extended his protective measures to other trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, accusing them of exploiting US markets. These actions surprised China, as noted by Georgetown University policy researcher Ning Leng. “This was the first time they took Trump’s policies seriously, and they likely underestimated the speed with which he would implement them,” Ning observed.

China’s Economic Vulnerability

At the time, China was heavily dependent on exports to the United States. American consumers and businesses were key buyers of Chinese manufactured products, and Trump’s tariffs threatened to disrupt this flow. This reliance placed Chinese workers and industries at risk, as the US sought to protect its own manufacturers. The trade tensions compounded China’s existing economic challenges, such as stagnant domestic consumption, high unemployment, and a protracted property market crisis. “Exports to the US were a lifeline for Chinese industries, but now that lifeline was under threat,” Ning added.

Biden’s Inheritance and Reinforcement

When Joe Biden took office in 2021, he inherited and expanded Trump’s trade policies. Rather than lifting the tariffs, Biden’s administration maintained them, believing they were essential for curbing China’s economic expansion in technology and other strategic sectors. This approach included imposing restrictions on Chinese companies, notably Huawei, which was effectively excluded from US markets due to national security concerns. TikTok’s US operations also faced scrutiny, culminating in its separation from its parent company in China. Additionally, Chinese electric vehicles were barred from the US market through steep import duties. “While Trump is often viewed as the primary force behind China’s trade challenges, Biden’s policies may have been even more protectionist,” noted University of Hong Kong economist Tang Heiwai.

Tariff Escalation in 2025

Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 saw a significant intensification of tariff measures. He implemented a 20% levy on Chinese goods, citing the country’s role in the fentanyl crisis. This was followed by a 34% tax on Chinese imports, marking the highest level of tariffs on any nation at that time. The impact was immediate, with Chinese businesses facing supply chain disruptions and American firms racing to find alternatives. Meanwhile, Beijing retaliated by imposing duties on US agricultural products, a move that affected farmers—a crucial demographic for Trump’s political base.

Key Trade Dependencies and Compromises

Despite the aggressive tariffs, Trump did not fully account for China’s dominance in rare earth materials, which are vital for technologies ranging from smartphones to military equipment. This strategic oversight highlighted the complexity of the trade dispute, as US industries relied on China for critical resources. In a bid to secure economic stability, Trump engaged in negotiations that led to the suspension of some export controls. The October meeting in South Korea resulted in an agreement where China committed to purchasing more US agricultural goods, a move that helped ease tensions. In return, Washington reduced some tariffs on Chinese imports related to fentanyl production, signaling a willingness to compromise.

Looking Ahead: A Test of Diplomacy

The upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi is now a focal point for global markets, as investors and policymakers await clarity on the future of tariffs. The agreement reached in October 2025 has temporarily eased some pressures, but the risk of renewed conflict remains high. With both leaders seeking to balance economic interests against political goals, the outcome of this summit could determine the trajectory of US-China relations. As Trump prepares to enter the negotiation room, the stakes are clear: the success of the truce will hinge on whether both sides can agree to terms that protect their respective industries without jeopardizing the broader economic partnership.

Broader Implications for Global Trade

The trade dispute has extended beyond the US and China, influencing global supply chains and trade policies. Tariffs have forced countries to reevaluate their economic strategies, with some aligning more closely with the US to counter China’s influence. Meanwhile, China has leveraged its position as a manufacturing powerhouse to negotiate favorable terms. The meeting in May is expected to address these broader implications, potentially reshaping international trade dynamics. Analysts suggest that any breakthrough will require mutual concessions, as neither side can afford to walk away from the table without significant economic consequences.

Analyst Perspectives on the Trade Dynamics

Experts emphasize that the trade war has not only affected bilateral relations but also exposed vulnerabilities in global economic systems. Tang Heiwai highlighted that Biden’s policies have maintained a high level of protectionism, ensuring that the US continues to exert pressure on China. “The focus remains on securing economic advantages, even at the cost of strained diplomatic ties,” Heiwai stated. Ning Leng further pointed out that the US’s strategic leverage in the trade dispute depends on its ability to navigate China’s economic strengths, such as its control over rare earth minerals. “This meeting is a chance to realign priorities and find a sustainable path forward,” Ning concluded.

As the May summit approaches, the world watches closely. The outcome could either solidify the trade truce or lead to another round of tariffs, reshaping the economic landscape for years to come. With the stakes so high, both Trump and Xi will need to demonstrate flexibility and foresight to ensure a mutually beneficial resolution.