Analysis: Trump declares victory in Iran war after rescue, but threats to US operation still loom

Following the retrieval of the second F-15 pilot shot down over Iran, US President Donald Trump quickly proclaimed triumph, stating that the operation “proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority” on Sunday. However, analysts argue that the situation remains nuanced, with the recent events underscoring persistent risks to US military assets and personnel in the region.

While the mission to recover the pilots was successful, the past few days revealed a series of challenges. Two aircraft were downed, and at least one helicopter came under fire, highlighting the ongoing danger to American forces. Washington-based sources, speaking to the BBC, suggested that these losses could influence Trump’s decision to pursue ground operations, such as seizing control of Kharg Island or targeting sites in the Persian Gulf, or to capture highly enriched uranium in Iran.

“The loss of aircraft and the complexity of the operation might dissuade Trump from any large-scale ground action,” one source noted.

Such operations could be intricate, exposing US forces to Iranian capabilities like man-portable air defense systems—shoulder-launched weapons effective against low-altitude aircraft. Yet, the ability of troops to establish a forward airfield and refueling point in a contested area, while maintaining control for hours and neutralizing two grounded planes, could bolster confidence in the administration’s strategy.

Trump’s messaging has been inconsistent, with him hinting at an imminent “deal” with Iran during recent phone calls. If negotiations falter, he has repeatedly stated that a self-imposed deadline is approaching, signaling potential strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges to “leave Tehran living in hell.” During a brief Fox interview, he also mentioned the possibility of seizing Iran’s oil, though specifics were not provided.

His weekend remarks contrast with earlier statements, including a televised address on 1 April, where he claimed the US had already created favorable conditions for other nations to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. While he once suggested willingness to withdraw from Iran if a deal wasn’t reached, his recent comments suggest a pivot toward escalating pressure by threatening new targets.